Odds rising that bird flu will make the jump to humans

Global Experts say action is needed now. Of course, under Trump and RFK Jr., we won't

By Global Virus Network

Leading scientists have published a call-to-action urging global governments to address the escalating H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in North America, which has infected both animals and humans and resulted in significant agricultural losses.

The Global Virus Network (GVN), an international coalition of leading human and animal virologists spanning more than 80 Centers of Excellence and Affiliates in over 40 countries, has published a detailed analysis and urgent call-to-action in The Lancet Regional Health – Americas regarding the ongoing H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in North America.

In their publication, the GVN emphasizes the need for immediate and coordinated global action. They urge governments to strengthen disease surveillance, enforce biosecurity protocols, and proactively prepare for the possibility of human-to-human transmission of the virus.

“Understanding the current landscape of H5N1 infections is critical for effective prevention and response,” said Sten H. Vermund, MD, PhD, chief medical officer of the GVN and dean of the USF Health College of Public Health at the University of South Florida, USA. “The virus’ ability to infect both animals and humans, combined with recent genetic changes, underscores the importance of proactive surveillance and rapid response measures.”

The H5N1 outbreak has so far impacted nearly 1,000 dairy cow herds and led to over 70 human infections, including the first confirmed U.S. fatality. The virus presents a significant threat to the U.S. poultry industry, particularly in regions with dense farming operations and inconsistent protective measures.

Since 2022, the highly pathogenic virus has spread to all 50 U.S. states and Canada, resulting in the culling or death of more than 168 million poultry birds. Although human-to-human transmission has not been documented, experts caution that genetic mutations or reassortments, when different flu strains combine, could elevate the risk of transmissibility among humans.

Surveillance and Genomic Monitoring Are Crucial

“Genomic surveillance is pivotal in tracking viral evolution and informing response strategies,” said Marion Koopmans, DVM, PhD, center of excellence director at the GVN and head of the department of viroscience at Erasmus Medical Center, Netherlands.  “Continued investment in surveillance at the human-animal interface, and immediate sharing of unusual field observations and sequence data is essential for researchers worldwide to monitor virus dynamics effectively.” 

Dr. Koopmans is a U.S. and Dutch National Academy of Sciences member. She is highly regarded for her research on emerging infectious diseases and as a scientific advisor to policymakers at national and international levels. 

The GVN virologists underscore the need for improved pandemic preparedness, drawing on lessons learned from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and previous outbreaks. They advocate for a multi-faceted approach to pandemic preparedness, which includes:

1. Enhanced Surveillance: Continuous monitoring of animals, including testing of milk and wastewater and individuals working with infected animals, to track virus evolution that may lead to human-to human transmissibility. The GVN calls for more comprehensive state-wide testing in the U.S. and internationally.
2. Faster Genomic Data Sharing: Accelerating the release of genomic data to track virus evolution and spatial transmission, fostering collaboration among global research networks.
3. Improved Farm Biosecurity: Using personal protective equipment (PPE) and strict farm cleaning protocols to minimize human exposure and prevent virus spread.
4. Preparedness Plans for the Roll-Out of Tests: Advocating for self-administered diagnostic tests for farm workers, supported by healthcare access for frontline medical staff, to enhance early detection.
5. Strengthening Public Health Infrastructure: Increased funding and support for response mechanisms, particularly in high-risk regions, to better manage outbreaks.
6. Investment in Phenotype Prediction from Genetic Data: Invest in predicting the phenotypes of avian influenza viruses from genetic data, as key traits are difficult to predict solely from genomic sequences.
7. Investment in Rapid Vaccine Development: Encouraging the development and rapid deployment of vaccines for humans and animals, focusing on farm workers.
8. Preparedness Plan for the Roll-Out of Vaccines and Therapeutics: Prepositioned clinical studies to rapidly assess the properties of emerging virus strains and potential treatments.
9. Preparedness Plan to Allow for Rapid Clinical Studies: Focus on enabling rapid clinical studies to assess key properties of new pandemic strains, evaluate new vaccines and treatments, and support modeling efforts.
10. International Collaboration: Supporting a coordinated global response to track data, share research, and prepare for emerging viral threats to reduce community vulnerabilities and improve response strategies.

The Need for Vigilance in Agricultural Settings

“Initiatives should focus on enhancing biosecurity measures in agricultural settings and educating the public about safe handling of poultry products and potential risks associated with contact with infected animals,” said Peter Palese, PhD, center of excellence director at the GVN and Horace W. Goldsmith Professor of the department of microbiology at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai.

Dr. Palese is a world leader in influenza research and a U.S. National Academy of Sciences member.

“Given the growing circulation of H5N1 among mammals, the GVN calls for urgent efforts to understand and interrupt transmission in cattle through herd management and potential vaccination,” said Ab Osterhaus, DVM, PhD, center of excellence director at the GVN and founding director of the Center of Infection Medicine and Zoonosis Research at the University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover, Germany.  

“Strengthening surveillance at animal-human interfaces is crucial, as current monitoring efforts are insufficient to guide effective prevention strategies.” Dr. Osterhaus is internationally regarded for his work on animal viruses, SARS, MERS, and H5N1. He is a co-founder of the global One Health Community, and a Dutch and German National Academies of Sciences member.

A Call for Trust and Community Engagement

While some surveillance of H5N1 has been carried out, the GVN highlights the lack of comprehensive testing and monitoring to assess the virus’s spread and risks to public health.

“A robust nationwide monitoring system is essential to quickly detect, and quarantine affected animals and implement preventive measures to curb further spread and human infections,” said Elyse Stachler, PhD, member of the GVN and a research scientist at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, USA. “Further, we believe it is crucial to maintain trust and stakeholder buy-in for monitoring programs, particularly from farm workers.”

“We are advocating for community-driven strategies to ensure the successful implementation of vaccines, if necessary,” said Christian Bréchot, MD, PhD, vice chair of the board of directors and president emeritus of the GVN and director of the Microbiomes Institute and senior associate dean for research in global affairs in the USF Health Morsani College of Medicine, USA. “The situation with H5N1 demands heightened vigilance and collaboration across public health sectors.  Early detection and robust surveillance are critical to prevent further spread.”

Reference: “Enhancing the response to avian influenza in the US and globally” by Maggie L. Bartlett, Peter Palese, Meghan F. Davis, Sten H. Vermund, Christian Bréchot, Jared D. Evans, Lauren M. Sauer, Albert Osterhaus, Andrew Pekosz, Martha Nelson, Elyse Stachler, Florian Krammer, Gage Moreno, Gene Olinger and Marion Koopmans, 28 April 2025, The Lancet Regional Health – Americas.
DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2025.101100