What could go wrong with a "stable genius" with his finger on the trigger?
University of Otago
Many former leaders of the world's nine nuclear-armed nations were impaired by health conditions while in office, raising concerns over their decision-making abilities while they had access to nuclear weapon launch codes, a study from the University of Otago, New Zealand, has found.
The study analyzed the health information of 51 deceased leaders of nuclear-armed countries: China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Eight of the
leaders died from chronic disease while still in office, five from heart
attacks or strokes. Many of the leaders had multiple serious health issues
while in office, including dementia, personality disorders, depression and drug
and alcohol abuse.
Professor Wilson says that of the leaders who left
office while still alive, 15 had confirmed or possible health issues which
likely hastened their departure.
"Probably all of this group of 15 leaders had their performance in office impaired by their health conditions. In some cases, the degree of impairment was profound, such as in the case of two former Israeli Prime Ministers: Ariel Sharon, who became comatose after suffering a stroke in office, and Menachem Begin, whose depression was so severe he spent his last year as leader isolated in his home.
Impairment during crises was also seen in
the case of Richard Nixon's bouts of heavy drinking - including during a
nuclear crisis involving the Middle East.
"There have also been occasions where health
information about leaders has been kept secret at the time."
This was the case for multiple US presidents, including Dwight D Eisenhower, whose doctor described his 1955 heart attack as a digestive upset; John F Kennedy, whose aides lied about him having Addison's disease, a serious, chronic condition; and Ronald Reagan, whose administration hid the extent of his injuries after he was shot in 1981, and the likely signs of his dementia near the end of his term.
Professor Wilson says Kennedy was in poor health during his
first two years in office in 1961 and 1962, with his performance likely
impaired from Addison's disease, back pain, and his use of anabolic steroids
and amphetamines. It was in 1961 that he authorized the failed CIA-backed Bay
of Pigs invasion of Cuba and that his poor performance at a Cold War summit
with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev in Vienna was noted. In turn, Khrushchev's
poor mental health probably contributed to him triggering both the Berlin
Crisis and the Cuban Missile Crisis.
In France, long-serving President François Mitterrand clung
onto power until the end of his term in 1995, despite keeping secret his
advanced prostate cancer and after his doctor had concluded in late 1994 that
he was no longer capable of carrying out his duties. This latest study follows
previous research involving Professor Wilson on the health of former New
Zealand Prime Ministers. It found the performance of at least four of the
leaders was impaired, in three cases by poor health, and, in the case of Robert
Muldoon, by his heavy drinking.
Professor Wilson says with the rise in international
instability following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 it has become
even more important to ensure there is good leadership and governance in those
countries with nuclear weapons.
"This is particularly the case for the United States,
where a leader can in principle authorize the release of nuclear weapons on
their own, a situation referred to as a 'nuclear monarchy'."
He says there are a range of measures which could reduce
global security risks from leaders whose judgement is in question. They include
removing nuclear weapons from 'high alert' status, adopting 'no first use'
policies where nations refrain from using nuclear weapons except as a
retaliatory second strike, ensuring any weapon launches need authorization by
multiple people, and progressing nuclear disarmament treaties.
Professor Wilson says democracies could consider introducing
term limits for their leaders, as well as recall systems, so voters could
petition for politicians to step down. Requirements for medical and
psychological assessments could be introduced for leaders before they take
office, and during their terms.
"Maintaining a strong media with investigative
journalists can also help expose impairment in leaders."
Professor Wilson says politicians in general are exposed to
high levels of stress, which can affect their mental well-being. A study of UK
Members of Parliament has found they were 34 per cent more likely to experience
mental health problems than other high-income earners.
"Finding ways to reduce stress on politicians and better address their mental health needs is another way global security risks can be reduced."
