Two major polls released Monday and Tuesday show high dissatisfaction with McKee among likely voters
Two articles by Nancy Lavin, Rhode Island Current
University of New Hampshire poll shows Foulkes leading McKee 34% to 18%
The survey of 703 residents, including 364 likely Democratic primary voters, marks a new low in voters’ long running dissatisfaction with McKee. Less than one in five likely Democratic voters (including registered Democrats and independents) had a favorable view of the incumbent governor, while more than three-quarters viewed him unfavorably.
If asked to mark their primary ballots today — six months out from the September primary — 18% of likely Democratic voters would reelect McKee. Foulkes, a former CVS executive viewed as McKee’s main primary competitor, was the pick for 34% of likely primary voters. The margin of error overall was 3.7%, with a 5.1% margin of error for questions specific to likely Democratic voters.
The poll was conducted online between Feb. 12 and 16.
More bad news for McKee’s reelection prospects in latest AFL-CIO poll
“This poll shows us what we already know: Dan McKee is wildly unpopular among Rhode Islanders, and has not earned an unprecedented third term as governor,” Angelika Pelligrino, a spokesperson for Foulkes’ campaign, said in an email Tuesday. “From the Washington Bridge to the housing crisis, this governor has failed to deliver for the people he was elected to serve. Rhode Islanders are ready for caring and competent leadership who will actually solve the most pressing challenges in the state, and Helena will provide that.”
McKee’s campaign, meanwhile, criticized the poll for “major methodological flaws that seriously undermine its accuracy and credibility” — overrepresenting young voters and underrepresenting voters over 65, who are most likely to vote in primary races.
“Between now and Election Day, we are going to see countless polls telling a different story of the race, but one thing is clear: Governor McKee is laser-focused on lowering costs and standing up to Trump’s chaos, while Helena Foulkes is running on an agenda out of step with Democratic values that puts her own bottom line ahead of Rhode Island families,” Christina Freundlich, a spokesperson for McKee’s campaign, said in a statement Tuesday. “In September, voters will make a clear choice between a leader who fights for Rhode Islanders and a career built on making millions serving the special interests – whether or not faulty polls catch up in the meantime.”
Andrew Smith, director for the UNH Survey Center, said he was not surprised by the McKee campaign’s response. Smith agreed that younger people are less generally likely to vote in primary elections, but also pointed to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s win in November as evidence of higher turnout among young voters in specific elections.
“At this point in the year, many people who say they will vote in the Primary will not show up in September,” Smith said in an emailed response Tuesday.
But, he added, McKee fares poorly against Foulkes in all age categories, including among voters over 65, where Foulkes maintained a 17 percentage point lead.
Foulkes first challenged McKee in 2022, losing by 3 percentage points in a four-way Democratic primary. The unofficial rematch began soon after, with Foulkes actively fundraising and attacking McKee for his mishandling of the Washington Bridge closure, the December 2024 cybersecurity attack on the state benefits portal, and, most recently, botched tax forms sent to state employees. McKee in turn has criticized Foulkes for relying on out-of-state donors and her previous work for a pharmacy giant facing federal allegations of perpetuating the opioid crisis.
Foulkes’ lead over McKee in the poll narrowed among self-described moderates, and among women, the latter favoring McKee by a 1 percentage point margin. But, Foulkes enjoyed an even larger advantage over McKee among self-described liberal voters, men, and voters under 34 years old.
Across nearly every demographic and partisan breakdown, however, the largest swath of survey participants remained undecided. A small fraction (4%) backed restaurateur and first-time candidate Gregory Stevens, while 3% wanted another, unspecified candidate.
The survey also queried voters on their support for former Gov. Gina Raimondo as a potential “late entrant” to the race. News reports have fueled speculation that the former state leader and U.S. Commerce secretary under the Biden administration might be mulling a 2028 presidential run, but there has been little indication Raimondo would return to state office in Rhode Island.
Sean McKinley, project director for UNH’s Survey Center, acknowledged Tuesday that the November 2024 Ocean State Media story used to inform the poll question was “older than we realized.”
“Since we thought she was considering a run, we wanted to ask if likely primary voters were open to it, but we didn’t include her in our horserace question for the Democratic gubernatorial primary,” McKinley said in an emailed response.
Regardless of probability, three-quarters of likely Democratic primary voters did not want Raimondo to enter the gubernatorial race.
Raimondo, who now serves as a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, could not immediately be reached for comment Tuesday.
GOP voters favor return of Kalus
The poll also took a first-time pulse check on the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, gauging 137 likely GOP voters on their support for declared candidates Aaron Guckian, Elaine Pelino and Robert Raimondo, as well as undeclared but rumored candidate Ashley Kalus, who lost to McKee in the November 2022 gubernatorial election. The margin of error for Republican-specific questions was 8.4%
Kalus, who closed her campaign finance account in December 2023, did not respond to inquiries for comment Tuesday.
More than six in 10 likely Republican voters wanted Kalus to run again in 2026, with the remainder unsure. Kalus also enjoyed the most support as a potential candidate, viewed favorably by one in three GOP voters, compared with 12% for Guckian, 21% for Pelino and 6% for Robert Raimondo. At least six in 10 likely GOP voters were unsure when asked about all three declared Republican candidates, suggesting name recognition problems.
Foulkes similarly appeared to be unfamiliar to nearly one in three likely Democratic primary voters, while roughly a quarter each viewed her favorably or neutral.
McKee did not lack name recognition, only approval, which dipped to its lowest point in UNH’s quarterly measurements over the last two years.
Even among registered Democrats, just one in five viewed the incumbent governor positively — a stark contrast to the 50% approval rating among registered Democrats in a Rhode Island AFL-CIO poll published on Monday.
Dismal ratings have hung over McKee for more than a year, often placing him at or near the bottom of the heap among state governors. The latest survey is no exception, contrasting Rhode Island voters’ sentiment toward their governor with those in Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Connecticut. Nearly half of voters in each of these states viewed their governors positively.
All in on millionaire’s tax
The UNH poll did not ask about infrastructure, instead taking the pulse of respondents on several elements of McKee’s proposed fiscal 2027 budget. His inclusion of a millionaire’s tax, for example, won strong or mid-level support among nearly two-thirds of those surveyed, with clear divides between Democrats and Republicans. A proposal to phase out the state income tax on Social Security benefits was even more popular, backed by eight in 10 survey takers overall, and 98% of registered Republican voters.
The governor’s budget pitch to ease the pain of skyrocketing energy bills by weakening state decarbonization mandates received more mixed reviews. One third of survey participants supported McKee’s proposal to delay the shift to 100% renewable electricity sources from 2033 to 2050, while more than four in 10 opposed it. Among Democrats, opposition was twice as strong as support, while the reverse was true among Republicans.
Regardless of party affiliation, however, nearly half of respondents said the state should slow down its transition to renewable energy sources to cap rising energy prices for ratepayers.
Housing remained the most important problem facing Rhode Island, followed by the increasing cost of living. Jobs and the economy and “corrupt/incompetent government” were tied for the third most salient problem, each named by 11% of survey takers.
Rhode Island voters were far more likely to view government corruption as a problem compared with residents in neighboring states. Infrastructure woes also scored higher among Rhode Islanders than voters in other New England states surveyed by UNH.
Nearly half of the state survey respondents identified as independent, with 38% registered Democrats and 14% registered as Republicans — a close representation of the state’s 704,000 registered voters, according to data from the Rhode Island Department of State. Half of respondents lived in Kent County or the Blackstone Valley region, with another quarter from the “Providence area.” Participants were split nearly equally between men and women, with a range of ages and educational backgrounds.
More bad news for McKee’s reelection prospects in latest AFL-CIO poll
Rhode Island’s reputation as a Democratic stronghold doesn’t seem to translate to Gov. Dan McKee, who is nearly as unpopular with state voters as President Donald Trump, according to a Rhode Island AFL-CIO survey released February 23.
A copy of the 25-question poll, conducted Jan. 22 to 26 by phone by Cumberland firm Fleming & Associates, was shared with Rhode Island Current in advance.
The union federation’s latest annual voter survey painted a tough road to reelection for McKee, echoing the low approval ratings he has faced in nearly every poll and survey released over the last 18 months.
The 57% disapproval among the 400 voters surveyed by AFL-CIO tracks with prior surveys. And, it almost rivals the 63% of voters who disapprove of Trump, according to the poll of 400 registered voters. The margin of error is 4.9%.
McKee enjoys more support among registered Democrats, more than half of whom view him favorably, with a similar percentage saying they would vote to re-elect him.
“The consensus and conventional wisdom seems to be that Dan McKee is a very unpopular governor across the board,” Pat Crowley, president of the AFL-CIO, said in an interview. “But he maintains a level of popularity within the Democratic Party, which in the Rhode Island context is a critical step for his reelection.”
McKee’s chances depend in part on the alternatives. In the AFL-CIO poll, a quarter of registered Democrats were mulling an unspecified alternative option for governor, while 17% had already decided they wanted to replace McKee.
Crucial to the heated rivalry between McKee and his September primary challenger, Helena Buonanno Foulkes, is the backing of Rhode Island’s large and influential labor movement. The AFL-CIO, which spans 80,000 members across various local unions, has not yet determined if it will make an endorsement, a decision which can only be made if at least two-thirds of members agree, Crowley said.
“It would surprise me if we don’t make an endorsement,” Crowley said.
More than half of voters surveyed did not have a strong opinion for or against Foulkes. The former CVS executive who lost to McKee by 3 percentage points in the 2022 primary is leveraging a comeback marked by press conferences and public statements attacking the governor on everything from the Washington Bridge to the latest state payroll fiasco. Foulkes also leads McKee in fundraising.
“I think she has an opportunity if she can define herself to the public,” Crowley said. “A good part of the issue is people don’t know who she is.”
Christina Freundlich, a spokesperson for McKee’s campaign, did not directly respond to questions about the governor’s performance in the poll, instead shifting focus to Foulkes.
“While Governor McKee is focused on lowering costs, creating thousands of good-paying union jobs, and standing up for workers when it matters most, Helena Foulkes built her career in corporate boardrooms—prioritizing profits over people and laying off workers while putting her own wealth ahead of Rhode Island families,” Freundlich said in an emailed statement Monday. “That stark contrast is why Democrats, labor, and working families are uniting behind Governor McKee, fueling his momentum and putting him on a clear path to victory this fall.”
Angelika Pelligrino, spokesperson for Foulkes’ campaign, returned the jab in a statement Monday afternoon.
“With a nearly 60% disapproval this poll shows that after five years in office, Dan McKee is almost as unpopular with Rhode Island voters as Donald Trump,” Pelligrino said. “Rhode Islanders are fed up with the Washington Bridge failure and a governor who has stood idly by while a housing crisis crushes working families across the state. After years of incompetence and inaction, voters have simply lost confidence in their governor.”
Shekarchi who?
The poll was conducted before House Speaker K. Joseph Shekarchi’s announcement that he would not run for governor, ending a long-rumored candidacy that, if confirmed, could have presented a challenge for McKee.
“I think the person who benefits the most from the speaker not running is Gov. Dan McKee,” Crowley said.
The poll also took the pulse on state general officers and legislative leaders, including Shekarchi, though it did not ask voters to assess Shekarchi as a gubernatorial candidate. Shekarchi’s 28% favorability rating was on par with McKee, and less than half as many survey participants viewed Shekarchi unfavorably compared with McKee. But the majority were unsure, suggesting to Crowley that most don’t know much about the Warwick Democrat.
Among the 19% of survey takers who identified as part of a “union household,” 46% said they would reelect McKee, while one in five wanted to replace him. Crowley acknowledged the governor’s track record with labor has been mixed: positive in his stance defending offshore wind against the Trump administration, and the inclusion of a millionaire’s tax in his proposed fiscal 2027 budget. But the misprinted tax forms sent to 22,000 state employees in January — yet to be corrected — did not win him points with unionized state workers. And McKee’s proposal to roll back state climate change mandates to save ratepayers’ small sums on their monthly energy bills jeopardizes labor jobs tied to renewable and energy efficiency programs.
“It’s been a frustration,” Crowley said of McKee’s controversial energy affordability plan. “We’re optimistic we will be able to make some changes to what’s currently proposed to something that will be more aligned with what our members want.”
The poll also queried voters on a host of local and national issues, including offshore wind projects. The one in three who opposed increasing Rhode Island’s offshore wind supply was on par with last year, but supporters shrank in number: from nearly six in 10 last year to 50% this year. The change in sentiment also corresponded to an increase in the number who were unsure — reflecting the turmoil the Trump administration has created for the industry over the last year, including two suspensions on the Revolution Wind project, Crowley said.
“I think maybe with the muddying of the waters that Trump has done in the last year, it kind of throws people for a loop, and says, ‘I don’t know what’s going on here,’” he said.
Despite the chaos created by Trump, voters were split equally on whether the state was moving in the right or wrong direction — a noteworthy upswing compared with past surveys.
“I don’t remember anything that the state was underwater in the last 10 years,” Crowley said. “Generally speaking, the number has always been more people thought it was going in the wrong direction than the right direction.”
Unchanged from prior surveys: the focus on the Washington Bridge, which was the top issue heading into the 2026 state election season, followed by housing affordability and availability.
Shift in public perception of labor
Positive perceptions of the state labor movement continue to grow, with more than six in 10 viewing unions positively, up from 56% in 2025, and 54% in 2024.
And historic judgments that labor unions are too powerful have waned. In 2012, more than three-quarters of respondents said unions had too much power, but just three in 10 shared that viewpoint in 2026.
The shift seems to contradict the successes of local unions, which have scored major wins on top issues like worker pay and safety, wage increases, and, potentially this year, a tax on top earners.
“When people said we had too much power in 2012, we were losing a ton of battles, like the state pension reforms,” Crowley said. “Now, we’re getting so much of our agenda accomplished and people don’t think we have too much power.”
He chalked up the shift to better communication by local unions, including during the high-profile Butler Hospital worker strike and the response to offshore wind project shutdowns.
“People are seeing the labor movement as a part of the larger Rhode Island community, not just a special interest like some of our detractors like to portray.”
The 25-question poll did not ask about gun safety or restrictions, having come off a 2025 legislative session dominated by debate over an assault-style weapons ban. The mass shooting at Brown University in December seemed “too fresh” to include in the survey, Crowley said. The survey was conducted before the Feb. 16 shooting at a Pawtucket ice hockey rink left three people dead, including the shooter, and critically injured three others.
While fresh in the minds of the community, Crowley also said there wasn’t a clear question to ask from the shooting tragedies.
One-third of voters surveyed identified as Democrats, while nearly half were unaffiliated, and 15% were registered Republicans — nearly identical to the split among the state’s 704,000 registered voters, according to data from the Rhode Island Department of State. Voters were nearly equally divided between men and women, representing ages 18 to over 60.
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