Cancer is becoming a global crisis shaped less by biology than by inequality, risk exposure, and access to care.

“Impending Disaster”: Scientists Warn That Cancer Deaths Are Surging Worldwide

By The Lancet

Global cancer diagnoses and deaths rose sharply between 1990 and 2023, even as treatments improved and prevention efforts expanded. Without swift action and focused investment, projections indicate that 30.5 million people will be newly diagnosed with cancer and 18.6 million will die from the disease in 2050, with more than half of new cases and nearly two thirds of deaths occurring in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), according to a major analysis by the Global Burden of Disease Study Cancer Collaborators published in The Lancet.

Although the total number of cancer cases and deaths is expected to climb significantly from 2024 to 2050, there is a more nuanced picture beneath those totals. When cancer incidence and mortality are adjusted for age, global rates are not projected to rise. This indicates that much of the increase is being driven by population growth and the expanding proportion of older adults worldwide.

Even so, this trend falls well short of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of cutting premature deaths from non-communicable diseases, including cancer, by one third by 2030.

“Cancer remains an important contributor to disease burden globally and our study highlights how it is anticipated to grow substantially over the coming decades, with disproportionate growth in countries with limited resources,” said lead author Dr. Lisa Force from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. “Despite the clear need for action, cancer control policies and implementation remain underprioritized in global health, and there is insufficient funding to address this challenge in many settings.”

She added, “Ensuring equitable cancer outcomes globally will require greater efforts to reduce disparities in health service delivery such as access to accurate and timely diagnosis, and quality treatment and supportive care.”

The analysis draws on information from population-based cancer registries, vital registration systems, and interviews with relatives or caregivers of people who died from cancer. Using these sources, researchers generated updated global, regional, and national estimates covering the years 1990 to 2023 across 204 countries and territories, 47 cancer types or groupings, and 44 attributable risk factors [1]. The study also projects the cancer burden through 2050 and evaluates progress toward the UN SDG target of reducing non-communicable disease deaths between 2015 and 2030.

Striking differences in cancer burden around the world

In 2023, cancer claimed 10.4 million lives worldwide and accounted for 18.5 million new cases, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers. These figures represent increases of 74% in deaths and 105% in new cases since 1990.

Behind the global averages, however, are pronounced inequalities. Age-standardized cancer death rates fell by 24% worldwide from 1990 to 2023, but most of that progress occurred in high-income and upper-middle-income countries. In contrast, age-standardized incidence rates increased in low-income countries by 24% and in lower-middle-income countries by 29%, highlighting the faster growth of cancer burden in regions with fewer resources.

Between 1990 and 2023, Lebanon had the greatest percentage increase in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for both sexes combined, while United Arab Emirates had the greatest decrease in age-standardized incidence, and Kazakhstan had the greatest decrease in age-standardized death rates .

In 2023, breast cancer was the most diagnosed cancer worldwide for both sexes combined, with tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer being the leading cause of cancer deaths.

Increasing impact of behavioral risk factors

The study estimates that 42% (4.3 million) of the estimated 10.4 million cancer deaths in 2023 were attributable to 44 potentially modifiable risk factors—presenting an opportunity for action.

Behavioral risk factors contributed to the most cancer deaths across all country income levels in 2023, especially tobacco use which contributed to 21% of cancer deaths globally. Tobacco was the leading risk factor in all country income levels except low-income countries, where the leading risk factor was unsafe sex (linked to 12.5% of all cancer deaths).

A greater proportion of global cancer deaths in men (46%) in 2023 were linked to potentially modifiable risk factors (mostly tobacco, unhealthy diet, high alcohol use, occupational risks, and air pollution) than in women (36%), for whom the leading risk factors were tobacco, unsafe sex, unhealthy diet, obesity, and high blood sugar.

“With four in 10 cancer deaths linked to established risk factors, including tobacco, poor diet, and high blood sugar, there are tremendous opportunities for countries to target these risk factors, potentially preventing cases of cancer and saving lives, alongside improving accurate and early diagnosis and treatment to support individuals who develop cancer,” said co-author Dr. Theo Vos from IHME. “Reducing the burden of cancer across countries and worldwide demands both individual action and effective population-level approaches to reduce exposure to known risks.”

Equitable cancer-control efforts must be top priority

Ultimately, the study calls for cancer prevention to be a component of policies in LMICs and underscores the need for equitable cancer-control efforts to ensure all people with cancer receive the care they need where and when they need it.

“The rise of cancer in LMICs is an impending disaster,” said co-author Dr. Meghnath Dhimal from the Nepal Health Research Council. “There are cost-effective interventions for cancer in countries at all stages of development. These cancer burden estimates can help broaden the discussion around the importance of cancer and other non-communicable diseases in the global health agenda. To control the growth of non-communicable diseases including cancer in LMICs, an interdisciplinary approach for evidence generation and multi-sectoral collaboration and coordination for implementation are urgently needed.”

According to Dr. Force, “These new estimates and forecasts can support governments and the global health community in developing data-informed policies and actions to improve cancer control and outcomes around the world. They can also support tracking of progress towards global and regional cancer targets.”

She added, “Our analysis also highlights the need for more data from sources such as cancer and vital registries, particularly in lower-resource settings. Supporting cancer surveillance systems is crucial to informing both a local and global understanding of cancer burden.”

While the study uses the best available data, the authors note that the estimates are constrained by a lack of high-quality cancer data, particularly in resource-limited countries. They also point out that current GBD estimates do not account for several infectious diseases known to be causally linked to cancers which are common in some lower-income countries such as Helicobacter Pylori and Schistosoma haematobium, which likely underestimates the cancer burden linked to modifiable risks. Neither do they incorporate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic or recent conflicts on the cancer burden. Finally, estimates of future cancer burden do not account for the impact of potential new breakthrough discoveries that could alter the longer-term trajectory of cancer burden.

Writing in a linked Comment, Dr. Qingwei Luo and Dr. David P Smith from The University of Sydney and Cancer Council NSW, who were not involved in the study, said: “To ensure meaningful progress in reducing the global cancer burden, it is imperative that governments prioritize funding, strengthen health systems, reduce inequalities, and invest in robust cancer control initiatives and research on prevention, intervention, and implementation—because the future of cancer control depends on decisive, collective action today.”

Reference: “The global, regional, and national burden of cancer, 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023”, 11 November 2025, The Lancet.
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01635-6

The study was funded by the Gates Foundation, St Jude Children’s Research Hospital, and St Baldrick’s Foundation. It was conducted by the GBD 2023 Cancer Collaborators.