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Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Exclusive: Mageau plans to field full slate in 2012 and WIN!

"Storm on the Sea of Galilee" by Rembrandt
Batten down the hatches, Charlestown, here comes Jim Mageau again!

Reliable sources report that Jim Mageau has declared he will field a full five-person slate of candidates for Town Council in 2012 and that he will win.

Mageau did not identify who those five candidates will be.

That leads to speculation that Mageau may not run on his own slate. Perhaps he will be content with the role of “Boss Mageau” who will act as the power behind his disciples.

Whether current Council Member Lisa DiBello will join Mageau’s slate is also an open question. Before her election in November 2010, DiBello disavowed any alliance with Mageau. But since her election, Mageau has become more outspoken as one of her only public backers. She, in turn, has abstained on Town Council votes relating to Mageau’s legal actions against the town.

Since his two-year reign as Town Council leader in 2006-2008, Mageau’s power at the polls has been in steady decline. Indeed, he was shut-out - actually trounced - in the last two elections.

Even in the November 2006 election that gave him his two years of glory, Mageau barely won election, winning the fifth and final spot on the Council by only a 44 vote margin over 6th place finisher Charlene Dunn.

Mageau’s 2006 “slate” – Bruce Picard and John Craig – both finished well ahead of Mageau. Craig came in second to Kate Waterman.

Because Mageau controlled a three-member majority, Craig was initially chosen as Council President over Waterman, even though the presidency traditionally goes to the top vote-getter. Later, when Craig left the Council in mid-term out of disgust (and actually left town), Mageau became Council President.

After Mageau’s stormy reign – which gave rise to the Charlestown Citizens Alliance as the umbrella group for resistance to him – Mageau’s attempt to win reelection in 2008 failed.  He ran without the endorsement of the Democratic Town Committee. His Council wingman, Bruce Picard, decided he would not run for re-election to the Council.

NOTE: Mageau was not endorsed by the Charlestown Democratic Town Committee (CDTC) in 2006 or 2008. In 2008, when Mageau announced he also planned to run for a seat on the CDTC, the other CDTC members decided not to file to renew their membership rather than serve on the same committee as Mageau.

Mageau lost his 2008 solo reelection bid, coming in last in a field of nine. He only won 837 votes, less than half of the 1,787 votes he had in 2006.

Mageau ran again in 2010, this time adding David Mars as his running mate. Mageau again came in last, this time in a field of 11 with only 520 votes, a drop of almost 40% from 2008. Mars, his running mate, barely campaigned at all, but still outpolled Mageau by 50%.

Mageau’s voting trend line suggests that a 2012 Mageau slate would be better off without his name actually on the ticket. A Fourier Analysis of Mageau's vote tallies indicates that his vote tally in 2012 - if he chooses to run - will be close to zero (see graph).

In 2006 and 2010, his running mates significantly outpolled him. He may even want to consider moving out of state (maybe to California) to really distance himself from his slate.

Author: Will Collette