With RFK Jr. in charge of the CDC, we are not prepared
By Sandra McLean, York University
Edited by Gaby Clark, reviewed by Robert Egan
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| The Onion |
At this point, avian flu H5N1 is thought to have very
limited ability to transmit between humans, but a recent case in British
Columbia with an unknown source of transmission has piqued the curiosity and
concern of scientists, including York University Professor Seyed Moghadas. Did
this lone case come about through transmission from an animal or another
person, and if it was via human transmission, what methods would control its
spread in the human population?
Director of York's Agent-Based Modeling Laboratory in the Center of
Excellence in AI for Public Health Advancement, Moghadas and a group of
researchers used modeling to understand the best spread control measures should
human-to-human transmission become possible.
"The idea was, let's evaluate some of the interventions
that we usually implement at the very earliest stage of a disease outbreak or
emerging disease, which we know very little about," he says.
For the research, "Containment Scenarios for
Post-Spillover Transmission Chains of Avian Influenza H5N1 from Poultry to
Humans," published in Nature Health, various
scenarios from isolation to vaccination before or after a spillover event were
modeled.
It is one of only a few studies that have explicitly modeled
outbreak dynamics following spillover into humans or the effectiveness of
public health interventions in early and highly uncertain phases of virus
development.





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