Getting vaccinated is still the smartest thing
Laine
Bergeson
It’s been three years since the World Health Organization
declared an end to the COVID-19 public health emergency, but COVID still
circulates worldwide. Does that mean the pandemic is still going on, just in a
non-emergency phase? Or has COVID become an endemic virus, like the flu?
CIDRAP News talked with Center for Infectious Disease
Research and Policy (CIDRAP) Director Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, to
understand what defines a pandemic, if we’re still in one, and what gives a
pathogen pandemic potential.
CIDRAP News: What exactly is a pandemic?
Michael Osterholm: There’s no magic answer to
that question. From my perspective, I usually say the only examples we
have in modern history are viral infections that are transmitted via the
respiratory route, like the flu and COVID, because the dynamics of transmission
make it a worldwide threat, and “worldwide threat” is important in defining a
pandemic. A pandemic is not just something that happens in one localized area.
Plagues weren’t viruses, but, in the modern world, a
pandemic is almost always a viral infection.
CIDRAP News: Why?
Michael Osterholm: Antibiotics could be an
important part of why bacterial viruses aren't as big of a threat today. But
what’s really at the heart of it is what flu and COVID represent today in terms
of risk—that is, slight changes in the virus result in increased susceptibility.
And when there's a major change in the virus, you virtually have no protection.
“A pandemic is almost always a viral infection.”
For a good example, look at influenza. Each flu pandemic was
caused when there was a major shift in the genetics of the virus, so virtually
no one was immune. If you look at COVID, it was very much the same thing.
CIDRAP News: Why were SARS (severe acute respiratory
syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) not pandemics?
Michael Osterholm: Because they are not readily
transmitted. We were able to bring them under control, basically with standard
control measures that you would use for respiratory illness. And that's good
news because the case-fatality rate for SARS and MERS is between 15% and 35%.
For COVID, the case-fatality rate was 1% to 1.5%.
CIDRAP News: So pandemics have less to do with
severity and more to do with how transmissible a virus is?
Michael Osterholm: Both how transmissible it
is and risk are important. For example, if you have a common
cold virus for which we have no previous immunity suddenly spread around the
world, most of us would not consider that a pandemic in the sense that it's not
a severe illness. So there’s an implied status of severe illness.
CIDRAP News: What’s the difference
between a pandemic and an epidemic?
Michael Osterholm: Epidemic relates back to the
issue of transmission. For example, we have a major epidemic of Ebola going on
right now, which surely has a high case-fatality rate. It's a very serious
illness, but it's not readily transmitted via the respiratory route.