Trump message to tomorrow’s adults: “You’re screwed and I don’t care”
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
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This is only for one birth year; when instead taking into
account all children who are between 5 and 18 years old today, this adds up to
1.5 billion children affected under a 3.5°C scenario, and with 654 million
children that can be protected by remaining under the 1.5°C threshold. The
study also highlights that children with high socioeconomic vulnerability face
an even greater likelihood of unprecedented exposure to climate extremes in
their lifetime. Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are urgently needed to
safeguard the lives of children all around the world.
Climate change's disproportionate burden on youth
Climate extremes, including heatwaves, crop failures, river
floods, tropical cyclones, wildfires and droughts, will intensify with
continued atmospheric warming. Today's children will endure more climate
extremes then any previous generation.
"In 2021, we demonstrated how children are to face
disproportionate increases in extreme event exposure -- especially in
low-income countries. Now, we examined where the cumulative exposure to climate
extremes across one's lifetime will far exceed that which would have been
experienced in a pre-industrial climate" says Wim Thiery, professor of
climate science at VUB and senior author of the study.
"In this new study, living an unprecedented life means
that without climate change, one would have less than a 1-in-10,000 chance of
experiencing that many climate extremes across one's lifetime" says Dr.
Luke Grant, lead author and climate scientist at the VUB and Environment and
Climate Change Canada (ECCC). "This is a stringent threshold that
identifies populations facing climate extremes far beyond what could be
expected without man-made climate change." The threshold varies by location
and type of climate extreme.
By combining demographic data and climate model projections
of climate extremes for each location on earth, the researchers calculated the
percentage of each generation born between 1960 and 2020 who will face
unprecedented exposure to climate extremes in their lifetime.
Generational impact of climate change
The younger a person is, the higher their likelihood of
unprecedented exposure to climate extremes. Even if we successfully limit
global warming to 1.5°C, 52% of children born in 2020 will face unprecedented
heatwave exposure, compared to only 16% of those born in 1960. For heatwaves,
the effect is particularly pronounced for those born after 1980, when climate
change scenarios increasingly dictate exposure levels.
"By stabilizing our climate around 1.5 °C above
pre-industrial temperatures, about half of today's young people will be exposed
to an unprecedented number of heatwaves in their lifetime. Under a 3.5 °C
scenario, over 90% will endure such exposure throughout their lives,"
warns Grant. "The same picture emerges for other climate extremes
examined, though with slightly lower affected fractions of the population. Yet
the same unfair generational differences in unprecedented exposure is observed."
Children in tropical countries will bear the worst burden under a 1.5 °C
scenario. However, under high-emission scenarios, nearly all children worldwide
face the prospect of living an unprecedented life (see Figure 2).
Climate vulnerability and social injustice
The study also highlights the social injustice of climate
change and its impacts. Under current climate policies, the most
socioeconomically vulnerable children born in 2020 will almost all (95%) endure
unprecedented exposure to heatwaves in their lifetime, compared to 78% for the
least vulnerable group. "Precisely the most vulnerable children experience
the worst escalation of climate extremes. With limited resources and adaptation
options, they face disproportionate risks," says Thiery.
Urgent Need for Global Climate Action
Ahead of COP30 in Brazil, nations must submit updated
climate commitments. Under current policies, global warming would reach around
2.7 °C this century. This study and the related Save The Children report
emphasize the urgency of keeping global warming below 1.5 °C for the children
of today and tomorrow.
Inger Ashing, CEO of Save the Children International, said:
"Across the world, children are forced to bear the brunt of a crisis they
are not responsible for. Dangerous heat that puts their health and learning at
risk; cyclones that batter their homes and schools; creeping droughts that
shrivel up crops and shrink what's on their plates. Amid this daily drumbeat of
disasters, children plead with us not to switch off. This new research shows
there is still hope, but only if we act urgently and ambitiously to rapidly
limit warming temperatures to 1.5 °C, and truly put children front and centre
of our response to climate change."
"With global emissions still rising and the planet only
0.2 °C away from the 1.5 °C threshold, world leaders must step up to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions and lessen the climate burden on today's youth,"
concludes Thiery.
The study was accomplished by researchers from Vrije
Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Environment and Climate Change Canada, KU Leuven,
the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI), and ETH Zurich.
Supplementary information
The numbers reported in our new study focus on one single
birth cohort: children born in 2020, who are today's five year olds. Climate
extremes will affect all generations, with children the most. We are providing
therefore here below numbers that take into account all children who are
between 5 and 18 years old today, which represents a total population of 1.69
billion children.
Heatwaves
Under a 1.5 °C pathway, 855 million children aged 5-18 in
2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves.
Under a 2.7 °C pathway, 1353 million children aged 5-18 in
2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves.
Under a 3.5 °C pathway, 1509 million children aged 5-18 in
2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves.
Crop failures
Under a 1.5 °C pathway, 316 million children aged 5-18 in
2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to crop failures.
Under a 2.7 °C pathway, 400 million children aged 5-18 in
2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to crop failures.
Under a 3.5 °C pathway, 431 million children aged 5-18 in
2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to crop failures.
Wildfires
Under a 1.5 °C pathway, 119 million children aged 5-18 in
2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to wildfires.
Under a 2.7 °C pathway, 134 million children aged 5-18 in
2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to wildfires.
Under a 3.5 °C pathway, 147 million children aged 5-18 in
2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to wildfires.
Droughts
Under a 1.5 °C pathway, 89 million children aged 5-18 in
2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to droughts.
Under a 2.7 °C pathway, 111 million children aged 5-18 in
2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to droughts.
Under a 3.5 °C pathway, 116 million children aged 5-18 in
2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to droughts.
River floods
Under a 1.5 °C pathway, 132 million children aged 5-18 in
2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to river floods.
Under a 2.7 °C pathway, 188 million children aged 5-18 in
2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to river floods.
Under a 3.5 °C pathway, 191 million children aged 5-18 in
2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to river floods.
Tropical cyclones
Under a 1.5 °C pathway, 101 million children aged 5-18 in
2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to tropical cyclones.
Under a 2.7 °C pathway, 163 million children aged 5-18 in
2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to tropical cyclones.
Under a 3.5 °C pathway, 163 million children aged 5-18 in 2025 face unprecedented lifetime exposure to tropical cyclones.
