Very high "unfavorable" numbers
By Nancy Lavin, Rhode Island Current
Gov. Dan McKee can’t score a win with Rhode Islanders, with seven in 10 people disapproving of his job performance and almost as many saying he does not deserve to be reelected, according to results of a University of New Hampshire (UNH) survey published Monday.
Helena Foulkes has a big lead but still has a name recognition
problem McKee perhaps has TOO MUCH name recognition
The Ocean State Poll out of the UNH Survey Center surveyed 737 residents, including 666 likely general election voters. It comes two weeks after a separate University of Rhode Island survey showed equally unfavorable ratings for the incumbent Democratic governor. The UNH survey also suggests more Democratic voters prefer McKee’s Democratic rival, former CVS executive Helena Buonanno Foulkes, over him in a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial primary, though most voters remain undecided.
The margin of error in the survey overall was 3.6%, though questions specific to Democratic primary voters have a 5.9% margin of error.
“Rhode Islanders don’t need more political jockeying — they need results,” Christina Freundlich, a spokesperson for McKee’s reelection campaign, said in an email Monday. “Governor McKee is laser-focused on fighting for Rhode Island working families and standing up to extremism in Washington. That’s the kind of leadership that delivered fewer school absences, reduced overdose deaths, and strong economic growth to our state over the last four years — and that’s why Rhode Islanders can count on him to keep delivering in the years ahead.”
Foulkes took a swipe at McKee hours before the survey was published, accusing him of “failing to meet the minimum threshold” for honesty and transparency about the Washington Bridge failure. A state-commissioned audit report completed more than a year ago but only released publicly on Friday documents decades of structural problems with the westbound highway that state officials either overlooked or outright disregarded.
Jon Romano, a spokesperson for Foulkes’ campaign, again pointed to the Washington Bridge in a response to the poll results Monday afternoon.
“It’s no surprise that when our state leaders fail to handle our biggest challenges, the most glaring example being the Washington Bridge, Rhode Islanders are frustrated and fed up” Romano said in an email. “Rhode Islanders deserve competent leadership and shouldn’t settle for less. Helena will fight for every vote and restore trust in government.”
The UNH survey, conducted from Sept. 17 to 23, queried residents before the audit was released. Even before the damning report, more than a third of survey participants who disapproved of McKee’s job performance cited his handling of transportation and infrastructure — the top complaint, followed by poor leadership, named by 12% of disapproving voters.
Other recent polls more directly tie McKee’s poor approval ratings to the Washington Bridge problems: six in 10 survey participants in the recent URI poll said McKee was “highly” or “somewhat” responsible for the crisis, while more than eight in 10 of those who participated in a separate July survey by the Pell Center at Salve Regina University did not believe the reconstruction of the westbound highway would be finished on time and on budget.
Foulkes, who lost to McKee by 3 percentage points in the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial primary, has centered her second campaign around McKee’s handling of the Washington Bridge. In her Sept. 9 kickoff event, Foulkes suggested that Rhode Island Department of Transportation Director Peter Alviti Jr. should be fired. McKee has fended off questions about Alviti’s responsibility for the infrastructure meltdown despite outrage from voters.
And the winner is: undecided
Foulkes’ strategy gave her a preliminary leading edge, with more than one-third of likely Democratic primary voters backing her in a hypothetical 2026 primary matchup against McKee, who drew support from under one-fifth of those surveyed. However, four in 10 survey participants were undecided or did not know who they would choose, while 6% had someone else in mind.
Widening the prospective September 2026 ballot to include House Speaker K. Joseph Shekarchi, Foulkes’ remained the most popular of the three. But the 16% of Democratic voters with a favorable opinion of Foulkes — compared with 13% each for McKee and Shekarchi — fell within the margin of error. And again, the bulk of survey respondents appeared unsure, or neutral about all three.
Notably, McKee had the largest chunk of unfavorable opinions — leading to a “net favorability” of negative 49 — compared with net ratings of negative 6 apiece for Foulkes and Shekarchi.
“I believe the University of New Hampshire poll confirms what other polling is showing at this time: that this is a wide open race for governor with the majority of voters yet undecided,” Shekarchi said in an emailed statement Monday. “As Speaker, I’m focused on the important issues facing Rhode Islanders, such as housing, health care affordability, jobs and the economy. I have yet to make any decision on my political future. However, I am encouraged by the poll results considering I have not run statewide for public office. I do believe a great many voters recognize the accomplishments I’ve made on behalf of Rhode Islanders.”
Despite Shekarchi’s influential role on Smith Hill as House speaker and sizable war chest — $3.8 million cash on hand as of June 30, the largest of any state official — half of voters surveyed don’t know enough about the Warwick Democrat to sway their thoughts about a potential governor run. Roughly 13% of survey participants overall “definitely,” or “probably” want Shekarchi to throw his hat in the ring, up to 18% among Democratic voters.
Monday’s poll is the first to gauge voters’ sentiments on a Shekarchi gubernatorial run.
A troubling pattern
But McKee’s standing among residents has been documented through countless surveys spanning his time in office, including by UNH in multiple editions of its Ocean State Poll. Two years ago, nearly half of voters surveyed by UNH approved of McKee’s job performance, but his favor plunged soon after, and has remained at or below 30% over the next 10 editions of the UNH Ocean State Poll.
Most troubling for the governor, according to the poll, is the opinion among members of his own party: 36% of Democrats surveyed approve of his job performance — a slight improvement from 27% when the poll was last conducted in May. Roughly one in 10 Republican and independent voters, respectively, approve of his job performance.
The survey also asked participants to weigh in on another term for U.S. Sen Jack Reed. More than half of respondents said he deserves to be reelected, though one-fifth were unsure or did not have an opinion.
On policy questions, a majority of participants supported Rhode Island working with other Northeast states on vaccine requirements and opposed the federal government’s stoppage of the Revolution Wind project.
The 65-turbine project, already 80% complete in Rhode Island Sound, was still in limbo when the survey was conducted, but has since resumed work under the Sept. 22 order of a federal judge in D.C.
Half of survey participants identified Democrats, compared with 30% Republican and the remainder unaffiliated. The survey featured participants across education levels, regions of the state, and ages, with near-equal participation among men and women.
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