Is 2026 the year of the crossover voter in Rhode Island? What the data says.
By Nancy Lavin, Rhode Island Current
Lifelong Republican Joe Paglia recently disaffiliated from the GOP for the first time in his life.
Democratic voters in Charlestown, Block Island,
Westerly and So. Kingstown need to know about phony
"Democrats" like Leah Boisclair. They are fronts
for a MAGA guy who set up a network of PACs
to support fake Dems in the Sept. 9 primary
His views haven’t changed. But the Narragansett resident and small business owner sees the registration change, which lets him vote in local and state Democratic primaries, as a way to change the course of a political path he doesn’t like.
“I don’t want anyone who’s too far left, or even too far right,” Paglia, 59, said. “I just want someone who can get stuff done,
Rhode Island, like much of the country, has a long history of crossover voting, in which partisan voters change political affiliations to influence the outcome of primary races of opposite political parties. But the strategy has gained renewed attention across the Ocean State this election cycle, widely promoted by a conservative-leaning political group, The League of RI Businesses.
“This is the best time to knock out the worst candidate,” is the declaration on a graphic on The League’s Facebook page. The accompanying post explains that unaffiliated voters in Rhode Island can vote in either party primary. Voters who are registered Democrats or Republicans cannot access the opposite party’s primary ballot.
“In the Rhode Island primaries, who’s on the Democratic ticket decides the election,” said Dave Levesque, co-founder of the League.
It’s not just about preventing candidates perceived as too progressive from winning.
Levesque, also a Republican turned independent, also believes there are Democratic candidates who truly represent the business-minded, small government platform that he and other conservative voters embrace. Ten of the 23 state legislative candidates endorsed by the League are Democrats, including Mark Mesrobian, who is challenging Sen. Alana DiMario for the District 36 seat representing parts of Narragansett, North Kingstown and New Shoreham.
Paglia, a district voter, said he appreciates Mesrobian’s business background and emphasis on affordability concerns, including energy costs. Voting for Mesrobian is the main reason he disaffiliated, though he also plans to vote for Joe Solomon Jr. in the four-way Democratic primary for the attorney general’s race, he said.
According to Levesque, the League’s strategy is gaining traction, with many Republican voters verbally committing to disaffiliate to vote in local primaries.
The numbers say otherwise.
What the data says
Just over 1,600 Republicans disaffiliated in the three months leading up to the Aug. 10 deadline to do so before the Sept. 9 primary, — less than 2% of the 100,000 GOP voters in the state — according to data from the Rhode Island Department of State.
Affiliation changes in the other direction, from Democrat to independent, were slightly higher, at 2,900 people, but an even smaller percentage of the state’s overall Democratic voter base.
Fewer voters disaffiliated in the last three months , compared with the two prior election cycles.
Not a surprise to Adam Myers, an associate professor of political science at Providence College. Not because conservative voters don’t want to influence the outcomes of Democratic primaries, and vice versa, but because most Rhode Islanders are already unaffiliated anyway.
More than half of the 691,000 registered voters in Rhode Island identify as independents.
“Party affiliation has already been dead,” Myers said. “Even though we’re a Democratic state, party affiliation shows something very different than our voting patterns.”
For example, more than half of voters backed Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, compared to 41% who voted for Trump. Yet voter registration data at the time, like now, showed more than half of voters were registered as independents.
Anecdotal experiences from election administrators and advocates who organize voter registration and outreach events also suggest most voters aren’t thinking much about disaffiliating before a primary.
“Those requests are few and far between,” said Christine Martone, president of the League of Women Voters of South County.
Martone, who has tabled hundreds of registration and information booths during her 12 years with the League, suspected that voters who wanted to disaffiliate to vote in an opposite party primary wouldn’t openly admit it, either.
But many also don’t understand the election process and voting rules enough to even ask, she said.
“A lot of people think they know about voting, and they really don’t,” she said. “We get lots of crazy questions.”
Voters are still surprised to learn they can vote by mail, or early, in-person, just because it’s easier, even though these options began in Rhode Island in 2020, and were enshrined into state law two years later. Two years ago, just before the 2024 election cycle, a new state law made it easier for independent voters to participate in party primaries, automatically returning them to unaffiliated status after they cast their ballots. Previously, voters had to submit paperwork to disaffiliate after voting in a Democratic or Republican primary.
Information overload
Groups like the League of Women Voters, and the Rhode Island Department of State and Board of Elections, devote much of their work during election season to public information and outreach to help voters understand the rules and options.
But the barrage of booths at summer fairs, voter guides arriving in the mail and social media posts still don’t land for many.
Paglia can relate.
“I get kind of over-newsed,” he said.
He vaguely understood the state’s partially closed primary system already, but The League of RI Businesses’ disaffiliation campaign helped remind him to take action before the Sept. 9 primary this year, he said.
Solomon also reminded voters of the disaffiliation process during a recent interview on local, conservative leaning podcast Cumberland Unfiltered. Although Solomon is the most moderate of the four Democrats running for attorney general, he did specifically suggest Republicans disaffiliate to back him in the Democratic primary, though the strategy was mentioned by the podcast hosts.
“More Rhode Islanders voting strengthens our democracy, and I will never tell an eligible voter their vote is unwelcome,” Solomon said in an emailed response.
John Marion, executive director for Common Cause Rhode Island, doubted that a niche podcast or a single, political group could sway most voters to change party affiliation to vote strategically in September.
But that doesn’t remove the possibility entirely.
“Just because we don’t see it happen in 2026 doesn’t mean it won’t happen in the future,” Marion said.
Rhode Island Current is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Rhode Island Current maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Janine L. Weisman for questions: info@rhodeislandcurrent.com.
