Nightmare ahead
 |
| Upgrade if you can afford it. Photo by Dave Meckler on Unsplash |
Already, the prospective rise – massive in some areas of the
Northeast – has emerged as an elections issue in the Maine senatorial race with
harsh words for Sen. Susan Collins from Democratic opponent Troy Jackson.
An Axios
analysis finds prices jumping at least $2 per gallon for home heating oil
over this time in 2025 from around $2.50 to $4.63 now and projected to cross
the $6 per gallon price by deep winter. Families that heat with oil could
pay about 50% more this winter than last, according to from the
National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), up from its 31.3%
projection in mid-September.
 |
| Or add a heat pump. Photo by Shawn Rain on Unsplash |
The reasons are the same as those for price hikes for
gasoline at the pump – wars in the Middle East, and to a lesser extent,
between Ukraine and Russia, which has depressed global output.
By comparison, the Energy Information Administration’s Winter
Fuels Outlook projects electricity bills will rise 4% nationally,
while natural gas bills will fall 9% and propane spending will drop 3%. EIA
expects a smaller increase on heating oil than NEADA, projecting a 21% increase
in household expenditures.
Hitting the Northeast
More than 80 percent of home heating oil is consumed in the
Northeast, where some states lack robust natural gas pipelines, according to
NEADA data. Overall, about 3% of U.S. households use oil as their primary
heat source, compared to about 45% using natural gas and 43% using electricity,
EIA’s report says.
Global oil markets have been struck by the distribution
patterns through the Strait of Hormuz and now through the Red Sea, where
Houthis are battling with Saudis. Refinery activity has declined in Iran, the
result of U.S. embargoes on Iranian oil export.
As a practical matter, some families will cut back on other
expenses or turn the heat down to potentially unsafe levels to cover their
bills. There will be pressure on states to offer aid for heating oil or look at
requiring utilities to offer discounts, affordability programs or winter
shutoff protections. Those generally have not applied to independent
heating-oil dealers.
Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey declared a State of
Energy Emergency over rising winter energy costs, unlocking
nearly $150 million in relief and expanding assistance to middle-class
households that heat with oil. Rhode Island has also declared an energy
affordability emergency and directed $28 million in reserves toward winter
electric-bill relief, and Maine Gov. Janet Mills announced $40
million in automatically applied electricity discounts for low-income
residents.
Of course, the energy affordability issues are
compounded by the Trump administration’s attempts to dismantle the Low
Income Home Energy Assistance Program, or LIHEAP. The
administration fired LIHEAP’s federal staff at the Department of Health and
Human Services in April 2025 and proposed eliminating funding for the program.
LIHEAP is still running, but state administrators are
operating without dedicated federal staff.
The White House has HHS, which said it “will carry out
its responsibilities for funding Congress has made available” and that “HHS has
the staff and capacity to distribute these funds in a timely manner.”
Terry H. Schwadron retired as a senior editor at The New York Times, Deputy Managing Editor at The Los Angeles Times and leadership jobs at The Providence (RI) Journal-Bulletin. He was part of a Pulitzer Gold Medal team in Los Angeles, and his team part of several Pulitzers in New York. As an editor, Terry created new approaches in newsrooms, built technological tools and digital media. He pursued efforts to recruit and train minority journalists and in scholarship programs. A resident of Harlem, he volunteers in community storytelling, arts in education programs, tutoring and is an active freelance trombone player.
