Sabrina Matos in statistical tie for LG
By the Salve Regina University’s Pell Center
Democratic candidate Helena Foulkes leads the Rhode Island gubernatorial race with 39% support among likely voters, while the race for lieutenant governor remains statistically tied, according to a new survey from Salve Regina University’s Pell Center.
The survey was directed by Pell Center
Associate Director and Fellow Katie Sonder and fielded by Embold Research
between October 5-8, 2026. The survey included 815 likely Rhode Island midterm
voters and has a margin of error of ±3.6 percentage points.
Foulkes leads by 11 points, followed by Independent Ken
Block (28%) and Republican Aaron Guckian (17%). Foulkes leads across major
demographic subsets and has the strongest support among women (44%), people of
color (53%), and college-educated voters (43%). While support for Block and
Guckian does not individually outweigh support for Foulkes, their combined vote
share surpasses hers in some demographic groups, including across all Rhode
Island counties. Thirteen percent of likely midterm voters remain undecided.
The closest contest tested is the lieutenant governor's race, where incumbent Sabina Matos (43%) and John Loughlin (44%) are statistically tied. Matos performs well among women (53%) and Hispanic voters (56%), while Loughlin has stronger support among men (58%) and white voters (47%). Kim Ahern (52%) leads Alan Gordon (34%) in the Attorney General’s race, while 13% of likely midterm voters remain unsure.
Among congressional races, incumbents receive over 50%
support. Senator Jack Reed (55%) holds a 23-point lead over Republican
challenger Raymond McKay (32%). Reed has at least 60% support among women,
voters aged 18-34 and 65+, people of color, and college-educated voters. Among
the Rhode Island counties, his strongest support is in Providence County (56%).
Both incumbent members of the U.S. House of Representatives,
Gabe Amo and Seth Magaziner, receive 52% support, though the race for Rhode
Island’s 2nd Congressional District is more competitive. Victor Mellor (39%)
trails Magaziner by 13 points, while Kellie Keenan (33%) trails Amo by 19
points. Both Amo and Magaziner earn majority support from every age group
except those 50 to 64, where Mellor leads Magaziner by 9 points (51% to 42%)
and Amo trails Keenan by 3 points (43% to 40%).
“While congressional incumbent candidates appear to have
strong leads, likely midterm voters are more divided in the races for governor
and lieutenant governor, where important distinctions emerge across demographic
groups and counties,” said Sonder.
This survey was conducted as a part of the Pell Center’s Voices
of Value project that works to unpack the nuances of political
polarization, understand media consumption habits, and track support for
various political actors. The October 2026 survey is the seventh installment of
the project.
