Sam G Howard; Sources: RI Board of Elections, RI Secretary of
State
Eliminating the master
lever was supposed to assist the RI Republican Party (and strengthen RI’s
democracy) by assisting in one of the most important things a party needs:
candidate recruitment.
The problem, as it was posed, was that the prevalence of the
master lever basically acted as a deterrent for potential Republican candidates
for the General Assembly; why put in the effort of running if loyal Democrats,
voting for president or US senator or governor at the top of the ticket, would
simply pull the master lever and obliterate down-ballot Republicans?
Eliminating the option would allow Republican candidates to run
without fear of such occurrences, thereby assisting efforts to recruit quality
candidates.
The only issue is that the
candidates haven’t materialized. See the above graph of seats (Republicans in
red, independents in grey) contested by Republicans since legislative downsizing
ahead of the 2002 elections:
This year, Republicans will contest 40 seats in the legislature.
If they won all of them, they would barely break the Democratic supermajority
in the Senate, and still fail to do so in the House.
Keep in mind, 40 would be about twice as many districts as they
have won, ever. There are only about 20 districts across the state that
Republicans have ever won.
Winning 20 districts would actually make this the most
successful year the Republicans have ever had since the General Assembly
reached its current size in 2002.*
Simply put, the Republican
candidates necessary to make their party a functioning opposition haven’t materialized.
And it’s noticeable to me that Republican recruitment issues
have grown worse since 2010, when a Republican wave election empowered
Republicans nationwide and gave them majorities in both chambers of the U.S.
Congress.
The grey line is
candidates running as Independents, and the point to notice here is that they
have increased the number of seats contested over time. And Independents in
Rhode Island often caucus with the Republican Party in the State House (e.g., Blake Filippi) or are
already Republicans (e.g., perennial Providence candidate Luis Vargas who
volunteered for the RI Republican Party). Not all, mind you, but many would’ve
been Republicans.