Canada must consider even unlikely threats — including an American invasion
Such a scenario remains extraordinarily unlikely, but that’s precisely why it belongs in contingency planning. Serious governments do not dismiss low-probability, high-consequence risks simply because they appear remote.
The first responsibility of the prime minister of Canada, as head of government, is to protect Canadians. That responsibility requires preparing not only for the most likely threats, but also for the unlikely scenarios that could have profound consequences for the country.
In intelligence and security circles, these possibilities are sometimes described using a “swan” metaphor. Preparing for likely events, or “white swans,” is routine.
Equally important, however, is considering “black swan” events: highly improbable developments that fall outside normal expectations but could have disruptive and far-reaching effects.
Why plan for black swan events?
A future threat to Canada may have little resemblance to a hypothetical attack by the United States, yet the lessons learned from examining an unexpected attack could inform responses to other contingencies, including missile, cyber or hybrid threats that exploit North America’s geography.
Second, Canada has a long history of planning for unlikely but consequential scenarios. During the period between the First and Second World Wars, Canadian military planners developed Defense Scheme No. 1, which considered the possibility of conflict with the U.S.
American planners, for their part, developed War Plan Red — a scheme to invade Canada in the event of a war with the United Kingdom.
Neither expected war, but both recognized the importance of understanding strategic options. During the Second World War, the United States-Canada Basic Defense Plan (referenced as the Black Plan) was penned by Canada to respond to a scenario should Germany defeat the U.K., leaving Canada and the U.S. vulnerable to the Axis powers.
