And why American consumers are up Shit's Creek
On March 19, Trump said that he’d do whatever is necessary to ease the oil crisis. He also assured America that the crisis “will be over soon.”Bullshit.
The problem isn’t just that Iran has blocked the Strait of
Hormuz. It’s also that Iran, Israel, and the United States have all inflicted —
and continue to inflict — serious damage to the oil and gas infrastructure of
the Middle East. This damage will take months if not years to repair.
At one point on Thursday oil prices jumped to $119 a barrel
before falling back to around $111 a barrel — all but guaranteeing that the
price of gas at the pump will continue to rise, as will the prices of many
other products and services indirectly affected by oil prices.
What we are now witnessing is one of the grossest military
and political blunders in modern history.
It’s not hard to understand why Trump is trapped in Iran. He
doesn’t listen to anyone outside his small circle of sycophants who tell him
what he wants to hear.
But there’s something else. Iran has adopted an asymmetric
war strategy that’s working.
Boyd found that victory doesn’t go to the side with more
firepower. It goes to the side that cycles through the OODA loop faster —
observing what’s changing, orienting to its meaning, deciding what to do, and
acting before its adversary does.
Get inside your opponent’s loop, Boyd reasoned, and you
don’t just outpace him. You break his ability to form a coherent picture of the
war he’s fighting.
Manley observes that Iran has adopted Boyd’s approach. Iran
hasn’t needed to match American firepower; it’s needed only to generate
economic and political problems for Washington that outrun Washington’s ability
to orient, decide, and act.
Iran has gotten inside Trump’s OODA loop because Iran has
responded to U.S. airstrikes by widening the war horizontally —
attacking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, launching drones and missiles at
Gulf state oil and gas infrastructure, provoking the U.S. and Israel to destroy
even more of that infrastructure, hitting Amazon data centers in the United
Arab Emirates and Bahrain (causing regional outages for banking, e-commerce,
and cloud services), and squeezing other choke points that the global economy
depends on.
Iran’s leaders — veterans of asymmetric wars in Iraq and
Syria — are applying the same asymmetric logic to Trump’s war. Inexpensive
drones, short-range missiles, and sea mines can have the same effect that IEDs
had in Iraq — only with far greater strategic impact, because they disrupt
global supply chains.
What has Washington done? Dropped more bombs and launched
more missiles.





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