The haze of contradictions and confusion is a feature, not a bug.
We’re more than a month into Donald Trump’s increasingly disastrous Iran war, and we have no idea what’s really going on.
In part, that’s because Trump is now nothing but a creature
of pure id surrounded by enablers, running the country like an enormous
out-of-control toddler. But it’s also because the administration is not at all
interested in providing the American people with objective, reliable
information.
That erasure of truth leaves us unmoored.
Trump’s increasing instability was always going to lead to
chaotic, contradictory statements about the war, blurting out whatever ideas
have taken hold in the nest of spiders inside his head.
These constant reversals about what he plans to do next aren’t always random or delusional, but the sheer volume of Trumpian proclamations that seem divorced from reality does a terrific job of obscuring when something is deliberate.
That was the case at least until earlier this week, when
Trump decided to use the Iran war to engage in a little light market
manipulation. Well, some pretty hefty market manipulation, actually.
Follow the money
Trump spent last weekend frothing at the mouth with threats
to bomb Iran’s power plants unless it opened the Strait of Hormuz
within 48 hours. Sure, attacking a country’s civilian energy infrastructure can
be considered a literal war crime, but that sort of threat is really par for
the course for Trump these days.
After ratcheting up his rhetoric all weekend, Trump abruptly
reversed course Monday morning around 7:05 a.m., posting on
Truth Social that the United States and Iran “have had, over the last two days,
very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total
resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” According to Trump, the
“tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed, and constructive conversations
which will continue throughout the week” led him to postpone any strikes
against power plants for five days. (Tellingly, Trump was unable to specify
which if any Iranian officials were parties to these alleged negotiations.)
So while Trump was publicly telling Iran that he was prepared to do war crimes to get them to yield, the administration was also somehow simultaneously engaged in “good and productive conversations” with Iran about ending the war. Even in the shambolic world of the Trump administration, it seemed unlikely both of these things were true. But Trump contradicts himself so often that we’ve become accustomed to disregarding it as nothing but background noise, conveying nothing meaningful. It’s not worth trying to separate fact from fiction when it might all be fiction.
But it turns out that Iran wasn’t the audience for Trump’s
bluster nor his improbable change of heart and newfound commitment to seeking
peace. In fact, he wasn’t talking to Iran at all. He was talking to the
markets, though it appears he did so only after tipping off some lucky duckies
about what he was planning to do.
Because really, how else do you explain that about 15 minutes before Trump’s surprise announcement of how hunky dory talks were going, there was a sharp increase in purchases of stock market and oil futures? There was no discernible reason for these sudden jumps occurring at 6:50 am, normally a fairly sleepy time for premarket trading. But when Trump’s 7:05 am announcement about all those productive conversations predictably drove oil prices down, and stocks rebounded, those 6:50 am traders made bank. In just a few moments, those anonymous and fortunate folks made roughly $580 million.
Did Trump or one of his minions tip off some oil
traders? Sure looks like it! Is this the first time Trump has used the war to
move financial markets? Probably
not! On March 9, while markets were still open, he offered the hopeful
assessment that the war was “very complete, pretty much,” which juiced the
markets. After the markets closed higher, though, Trump returned to doom and
gloom, saying that “we’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough.”














